Time Predictions (Record no. 50053)
[ view plain ]
| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 05880nam a22006015i 4500 |
| 001 - CONTROL NUMBER | |
| control field | 978-3-319-74953-2 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER | |
| control field | DE-He213 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20201217111610.0 |
| 007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | cr nn 008mamaa |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION | |
| fixed length control field | 180228s2018 gw | s |||| 0|eng d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER | |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783319749532 |
| Local codes | 978-3-319-74953-2 |
| 024 7# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER | |
| Standard number or code | 10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2 |
| Source of number or code | doi |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | KCK |
| Source | bicssc |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | BUS085000 |
| Source | bisacsh |
| 072 #7 - SUBJECT CATEGORY CODE | |
| Subject category code | KCK |
| Source | thema |
| 082 04 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER | |
| Classification number | 330.01 |
| Edition number | 23 |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Halkjelsvik, Torleif. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 102633 |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Time Predictions |
| Medium | [electronic resource] : |
| Remainder of title | Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life / |
| Statement of responsibility, etc. | by Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen. |
| 250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT | |
| Edition statement | 1st ed. 2018. |
| 264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE | |
| Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture | Cham : |
| Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer | Springer International Publishing : |
| -- | Imprint: Springer, |
| Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice | 2018. |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION | |
| Extent | XII, 110 p. 12 illus., 11 illus. in color. |
| Other physical details | online resource. |
| 336 ## - CONTENT TYPE | |
| Content type code | txt |
| 337 ## - MEDIA TYPE | |
| Media type code | c |
| 338 ## - CARRIER TYPE | |
| Carrier type code | cr |
| 347 ## - DIGITAL FILE CHARACTERISTICS | |
| File type | text file |
| Encoding format | |
| Source | rda |
| 490 1# - SERIES STATEMENT | |
| Series statement | Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing, |
| International Standard Serial Number | 2512-1677 ; |
| Volume/sequential designation | 5 |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | IT Carlow ebook |
| 505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE | |
| Formatted contents note | Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others. |
| 506 0# - RESTRICTIONS ON ACCESS NOTE | |
| Terms governing access | Open Access |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Behavioral economics. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 99098 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Personnel management. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 102634 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Project management. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 4628 |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Management information systems. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 5342 |
| 650 14 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Behavioral/Experimental Economics. |
| Authority record control number or standard number | https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/W54000 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 99100 |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Human Resource Management. |
| Authority record control number or standard number | https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/517000 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 97128 |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Project Management. |
| Authority record control number or standard number | https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/515020 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 4628 |
| 650 24 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM | |
| Topical term or geographic name entry element | Software Management. |
| Authority record control number or standard number | https://scigraph.springernature.com/ontologies/product-market-codes/522050 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 102635 |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Jørgensen, Magne. |
| 9 (RLIN) | 102636 |
| 710 2# - ADDED ENTRY--CORPORATE NAME | |
| Corporate name or jurisdiction name as entry element | SpringerLink (Online service) |
| 9 (RLIN) | 30940 |
| 773 0# - HOST ITEM ENTRY | |
| Title | Springer Nature eBook |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Relationship information | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783319749525 |
| 776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY | |
| Relationship information | Printed edition: |
| International Standard Book Number | 9783319749549 |
| 830 #0 - SERIES ADDED ENTRY--UNIFORM TITLE | |
| Uniform title | Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing, |
| International Standard Serial Number | 2512-1677 ; |
| Volume/sequential designation | 5 |
| 9 (RLIN) | 100483 |
| 856 0# - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Link text | Send a message to library staff if access to this online resource is unavailable |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y2hljxwd">https://tinyurl.com/y2hljxwd</a> |
| 856 40 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Link text | Link to Springer open access ebook |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2</a> |
| 912 ## - | |
| -- | ZDB-2-ECF |
| 912 ## - | |
| -- | ZDB-2-SXEF |
| 912 ## - | |
| -- | ZDB-2-SOB |
No items available.